Deep League Risers and Fallers Week 15: A Deep Dive into the Fantasy Baseball Landscape
The fantasy baseball landscape is ever-changing, and as we approach the halfway point of the season, it's time to take a closer look at the risers and fallers in the deep leagues. With the heat of July upon us, the race for playoff spots is intensifying, and every decision matters. Let's dive into the analysis and uncover the players who are worth targeting or avoiding in your fantasy baseball teams.
Risers
Caleb Durbin, Boston Red Sox
Caleb Durbin, a 26-year-old second baseman, has been a bright spot for the Red Sox this season. After a strong rookie campaign with the Brewers, he was acquired in a trade that sent Kyle Harrison, Shane Drohan, and David Hamilton to Milwaukee. Durbin's bat came alive in June, slashing an impressive .325/.360/.614 with six homers and five stolen bases over 24 games. His June BABIP of .313 is a bit higher than league average, but it's not a red flag. However, his underlying power metrics are a cause for concern. His exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit rates rank in the bottom 10% of the league, and his process chart doesn't show any significant power surge. While Durbin's contact rate and decision value are strong, I don't expect him to maintain his current power output. He might get to 20 steals and bat closer to .250, but reaching 15 dingers on the year is a stretch. Despite his recent success, Durbin's lack of walks and low power output make him a risky addition to your team.
Dominic Canzone, Seattle Mariners
Dominic Canzone's roster percentage is disappointingly low, considering his impressive power metrics. In May, he had a rough month, hitting just .218 with a .205 BABIP, but he launched four homers and finished the month with a .787 OPS. Canzone bounced back in June, slashing .314/.385/.643 with six homers and a 7/14 K/BB ratio. His average exit velocity of 93.4 MPH and 16% barrel rate rank in the top 6% of all hitters, and his hard-hit rate is just outside the top 10%. Canzone's chase and whiff rates are both just above the bottom quartile, but his 21% K rate is better than league average. While he doesn't run, he walks enough with a 9.1% BB rate. Canzone's performance against lefties is also impressive, batting .238/.429/.524 over 28 plate appearances. With top-of-the-charts power metrics and a perfectly acceptable K rate, Canzone is a player worth targeting in your fantasy baseball team.
Kyle Karros, Colorado Rockies
Kyle Karros, the son of Eric Karros, has been on a roll lately. After a slow start to the season, he posted a .675 OPS in May and busted out in June, slashing .353/.429/.574 with a couple of homers and a 7/11 BB/K ratio. His .400 BABIP is a bit of a red flag, but his K rate has improved dramatically, striking out just 11 times in 68 at bats after 46 times over his first 163 at bats. Karros' K rate on the season is just over 21%, and he has a great walk rate at 12%, making him a great option for OBP leagues. His 44% hard-hit rate and 89.6 MPH average exit velocity are above average, but his barrel rate is just a bit below the mean. While Karros has a better OPS at Coors (.778) than on the road (713), his home/road splits are not extreme. He has more road homers than home dingers, but his advanced plate discipline and power potential make him a player to consider adding to your team.
Fallers
Nathan Lowe, Cincinnati Reds
Nathan Lowe, a first baseman, had a promising start to the season, but his performance has taken a nosedive in recent months. Lowe finished June with a .343 BABIP, which translated to a .226/.349/.283 line with no homers and no RBI in 23 games. His barrel and hard-hit rates have dropped significantly since my last coverage, and he continues to pull everything he makes contact with. Despite his poor performance, Lowe's decision value and contact rate have increased, which is a mystery. Lowe's BABIP has been over .300 for each month, and his OPS has dropped by 200 points between April and May and another 130 points from May to June. With his luck running out, Lowe is not a player I would recommend holding in deep leagues. In smaller leagues, my patience has worn out, and I would consider cutting him.
Chandler Simpson, Tampa Bay Rays
Chandler Simpson, an outfielder, had high expectations after a strong rookie season, but his performance has been underwhelming. Simpson batted .295 and stole 44 bases in 109 games last season, but his numbers have taken a hit this year. He started strong in April, batting .314 and stealing 11 bases in 14 tries, but his performance declined in May, batting just .255 and getting thrown out in 5 out of 8 attempts. Simpson's success rate on steal attempts is a major concern, as players need to be successful on 75-80% of attempts for the benefits to outweigh the extra outs. With a 19/28 success rate, Simpson becomes less viable in leagues that use OBP or OPS as scoring categories. If you need steals, consider other options like Nasim Nunez or Henry Bolte.
Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves
Bryce Elder, a starting pitcher, started the season strong with a 1.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and a 39/13 K/BB ratio in April. However, his performance has taken a turn for the worse in recent months. Elder was hit hard in June, ending the month with a bloated 8.10 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. His strikeout-to-walk ratio held steady, but he allowed more hits and homers. Elder's poor outing included clunkers against the Mets and the Giants, not powerhouse offenses. His strikeout and walk rates per nine innings are well below league average, and his current home run per fly ball rate is under 16%, which is lower than his previous seasons. Elder's performance is trending downward, and I have very little confidence in him against the New York Mets on Friday. If things go poorly, I might be out entirely.
In conclusion, the fantasy baseball landscape is ever-changing, and it's crucial to stay informed about the risers and fallers in deep leagues. While Caleb Durbin, Dominic Canzone, and Kyle Karros are players worth considering, Nathan Lowe, Chandler Simpson, and Bryce Elder are not recommended for your fantasy baseball teams. Stay tuned for more updates as the season progresses, and good luck with your deep league fantasy baseball journey!
